Cairo: With the referendum over the constitutional amendments that will shape Egypt's immediate political future just days away, the country's nascent political forces were squaring off on Sunday, scrambling to influence a choice that leaves many confused.
The Muslim Brotherhood and rump elements of the disbanded governing National Democratic Party, which both stand to gain the most from a rapid rebirth of electoral politics, support the amendments.
Arrayed against them is much, but not all, of the remaining political spectrum, centered on the young organizers behind the Tahrir Square demonstrations who fear a yes vote would ultimately rob them of their revolution.
Yet everyone agrees on two things. The referendum, which is scheduled for Saturday, will be a milestone and the first one not rigged outright in about 60 years. "Whether we accept the amendments or we reject them, either situation means a page in our history will turn," said Amr Shubaki, a political analyst at the state-financed Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies.
Also, and far more important, is that the referendum floats in a sea of confusion: the military has suspended the Constitution to rule, yet is asking the public to approve the reworking of bits of it.
The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, which is running Egypt, announced a simple up or down vote on about 10 amendments. Many of them, unveiled on Feb. 25 by a special 11-member constitutional committee, come across as a reaction to the long years under President Hosni Mubarak.
The president would be limited to two terms of four years each. Extending the emergency laws, in place for 30 years, would require a public referendum after six months. The president could not have a foreign wife. (Suzanne Mubarak is half Welsh, but because the provision limited the presidency to men by default, it lost the support of feminists.)
The generals of the Supreme Council have been mute on certain subjects, like what happens if the public rejects the amendments. In fact, voter education has been lacking. Samir Radwan, the finance minister, ignored a question about the amendments at a news conference on Sunday.
If passed, the changes are supposed to lay the groundwork for parliamentary elections in June and a presidential vote in August.
"There was a revolution, and then we discovered that those in charge of the revolution are not in the least bit revolutionary," said Ibrahim Issa, an Egyptian newspaper editor. "They are managing the revolution in the bureaucratic way that we see now; the armed forces think that it is a matter of a bunch of managerial decisions to transfer power."
The generals evidently want to get away from the complicated, sticky task of running Egypt as quickly as possible. Some people say they believe the generals want a quick transition without too much change. Regardless, with each passing week, their once shining reputation emerges a little more tarnished. Last week, gory pictures emerged on the Internet that were posted by people who said that soldiers clearing Tahrir Square had tortured them.
Political change cannot come fast enough for the Muslim Brotherhood. It organized a news conference to endorse the amendments and a big, glittery celebration on Saturday night, pawing the ground to become an official party after existing in legal limbo since 1954.
"This is the first step in a long journey out of the bottleneck we have been stuck in for years," said Mohamed Morsy, a leader of the Brotherhood. The army had to get its eyes back on the unstable situations over the borders in Israel, Libya and Sudan, he said. "We need to move from a transitional period to a period of stability."
Some Egyptians not normally sympathetic to Brotherhood positions support this view.
"Are we going to move on or slam into a wall or start derailing the process?" asked Hisham Kassem, a political analyst. "If it is rejected, what do we do, have a military council for two or three years?"
There are a variety of answers on that question. Most focus on the idea that the transition is coming too fast, that after years of oppression, political parties and civil society need more time to get on their feet. The military would guide the country with the help of some civilians while a new Constitution was prepared to create the framework for new elections. (That idea is murky, too, like whether the generals would pick the civilians to help them rule.)
"They are laughing at us," said Nasser Abdel Hamid, one of the young activists who organized the Tahrir Square movement, urging a no vote at a political rally last week in the Suez Canal city of Ismailia. "It will go back like it was before, as if we had done nothing."
It is hard to read the public mood. Some analysts predict a no vote because the country is in a revolutionary frame of mind. More analysts predict a yes vote because the economy is in shambles, there are rumors of a crime wave and many Egyptians crave normalcy.
No one really wants to predict the turnout among the 41 million Egyptians over 18 who are allowed to vote. (Only a national identification card is required to vote, and there is no formal voter registration.) Some say the new political awareness will drive people to the polls; others say that ignorance about the amendments will keep them away. Some Egyptians seem to be driven by both impulses.
"I do not know anything about them in detail," said Tamer Mohamed, a 34-year-old civil servant, referring to the amendments. "Despite this, I will go to the polling station to cast my vote."
The Muslim Brotherhood and rump elements of the disbanded governing National Democratic Party, which both stand to gain the most from a rapid rebirth of electoral politics, support the amendments.
Arrayed against them is much, but not all, of the remaining political spectrum, centered on the young organizers behind the Tahrir Square demonstrations who fear a yes vote would ultimately rob them of their revolution.
Yet everyone agrees on two things. The referendum, which is scheduled for Saturday, will be a milestone and the first one not rigged outright in about 60 years. "Whether we accept the amendments or we reject them, either situation means a page in our history will turn," said Amr Shubaki, a political analyst at the state-financed Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies.
Also, and far more important, is that the referendum floats in a sea of confusion: the military has suspended the Constitution to rule, yet is asking the public to approve the reworking of bits of it.
The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, which is running Egypt, announced a simple up or down vote on about 10 amendments. Many of them, unveiled on Feb. 25 by a special 11-member constitutional committee, come across as a reaction to the long years under President Hosni Mubarak.
The president would be limited to two terms of four years each. Extending the emergency laws, in place for 30 years, would require a public referendum after six months. The president could not have a foreign wife. (Suzanne Mubarak is half Welsh, but because the provision limited the presidency to men by default, it lost the support of feminists.)
The generals of the Supreme Council have been mute on certain subjects, like what happens if the public rejects the amendments. In fact, voter education has been lacking. Samir Radwan, the finance minister, ignored a question about the amendments at a news conference on Sunday.
If passed, the changes are supposed to lay the groundwork for parliamentary elections in June and a presidential vote in August.
"There was a revolution, and then we discovered that those in charge of the revolution are not in the least bit revolutionary," said Ibrahim Issa, an Egyptian newspaper editor. "They are managing the revolution in the bureaucratic way that we see now; the armed forces think that it is a matter of a bunch of managerial decisions to transfer power."
The generals evidently want to get away from the complicated, sticky task of running Egypt as quickly as possible. Some people say they believe the generals want a quick transition without too much change. Regardless, with each passing week, their once shining reputation emerges a little more tarnished. Last week, gory pictures emerged on the Internet that were posted by people who said that soldiers clearing Tahrir Square had tortured them.
Political change cannot come fast enough for the Muslim Brotherhood. It organized a news conference to endorse the amendments and a big, glittery celebration on Saturday night, pawing the ground to become an official party after existing in legal limbo since 1954.
"This is the first step in a long journey out of the bottleneck we have been stuck in for years," said Mohamed Morsy, a leader of the Brotherhood. The army had to get its eyes back on the unstable situations over the borders in Israel, Libya and Sudan, he said. "We need to move from a transitional period to a period of stability."
Some Egyptians not normally sympathetic to Brotherhood positions support this view.
"Are we going to move on or slam into a wall or start derailing the process?" asked Hisham Kassem, a political analyst. "If it is rejected, what do we do, have a military council for two or three years?"
There are a variety of answers on that question. Most focus on the idea that the transition is coming too fast, that after years of oppression, political parties and civil society need more time to get on their feet. The military would guide the country with the help of some civilians while a new Constitution was prepared to create the framework for new elections. (That idea is murky, too, like whether the generals would pick the civilians to help them rule.)
"They are laughing at us," said Nasser Abdel Hamid, one of the young activists who organized the Tahrir Square movement, urging a no vote at a political rally last week in the Suez Canal city of Ismailia. "It will go back like it was before, as if we had done nothing."
It is hard to read the public mood. Some analysts predict a no vote because the country is in a revolutionary frame of mind. More analysts predict a yes vote because the economy is in shambles, there are rumors of a crime wave and many Egyptians crave normalcy.
No one really wants to predict the turnout among the 41 million Egyptians over 18 who are allowed to vote. (Only a national identification card is required to vote, and there is no formal voter registration.) Some say the new political awareness will drive people to the polls; others say that ignorance about the amendments will keep them away. Some Egyptians seem to be driven by both impulses.
"I do not know anything about them in detail," said Tamer Mohamed, a 34-year-old civil servant, referring to the amendments. "Despite this, I will go to the polling station to cast my vote."
No comments:
Post a Comment